Peter Viney's Blog

It has just been announced that the first ITV debate of the 2019 Election campaign will be a head to head:  Johnson v Corbyn.

No Liberal Democrats, no SNP, no Plaid Cymru, no Green Party (and through gritted teeth) no Brexit Party. On sheer numbers of MPs let alone seats contested, you have to include Lib Dems, as has been true for 100 years, and the SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales.

Two party politics … Kurt Vonnegut in the novel Cat’s Cradle has an island divided, and everyone has to take sides:

“But people didn’t have to pay as much attention to the awful truth. As the living legend of the cruel tyrant in the city and the gentle holy man in the jungle grew, so, too, did the happiness of the people grow.”

It turns out that the cruel tyrant and the holy man in the jungle are working together in a huge con trick, they’re in league to create an ongoing drama which leaves each with his power base. Two sides of one coin.

And so we get to our current stitch-up. ITV will hold a two way debate. Opportunist Brexiteer Boris Johnson v Closet Brexiteer Jeremy Corbyn. While most Labour politicians want a second referendum and are (hopefully) Remainers, the party and especially its leader, has dragged its feet appallingly for three years, refusing to get off the Brexit fence and BE an opposition. The old game of British politics, where “first past the post” massively favours the two major parties continues. Without doubt, Conservative and Labour are “The Establishment”  united in league to maintain that. The TV debate is the most arrogant example.

So the “Remain” option which 48.1% of us voted for doesn’t get a voice in the debate. It’s Brexit at any costs v Soft Brexit.

Compare that 48.1% to the 2017 election, when 42.4%  voted Conservative or the 40% who voted Labour. The 2015 and 2017 elections were an anomaly too, as the Lib Dems suffered from the coalition years and had their vote crash spectacularly. In my area (Poole / Bournemouth), Labour came second for the first time in decades. As in local elections here, it’s usually Conservative v Liberal Democrat, and Liberal Democrat has won the local councils in the past, so it’s not a one horse race. In 35 years, I’ve never had a Labour leaflet through my door at election time.

2010 is probably closer to “normality”  for the Liberal Democrats – Liberal Democrat 23% (the other two up and down is the ongoing tyrant / holy man power fluctuation): Conservative 36.1%, Labour 29%.

NEITHER OF THESE ARE GETTING NEAR 48.1%

We also know the demographic must have changed in three years. Three full years of people reached age 18 and are statistically far more likely to vote Remain. Three years of the older generation have shuffled off this mortal coil, and that was a group statistically more likely to vote Leave. It’s been calculated that’s enough to shift the result without people changing their minds (aka coming to their senses).

I finished this, then opened The Sunday Times:

Jo Swinson: A debate between two men who believe in Brexit does nor represent where the UK is, nor what this election will be fought on. It is unacceptable to shut out the opinion of the 48% who voted Remain and many others beside. The voters deserve a proper choice not an establishment stitch up. (Sunday Times 3 November 2019)

Jo Swinson has to be part of the debate. Isn’t it interesting that Labour have never had a female leader, while four of the “Best Prime Ministers We Never Had” were Labour women: Barbara Castle, Shirley Williams, Mo Mowlam, Clare Short. (I can’t see that quality now). So yes, there has to be a woman there (even if Chuka Umunna is the one with the instant charisma).

The tyrant and the holy man continue the game of charades. I will borrow a quote I read on my feed this morning:

“So what’s the point of having a Rugby World Cup? We got a result four years ago. Why can’t we respect that?”

Forget the bullshit and wildly inflated promises from both the tyrant and the holy man. There is just one issue in this election. Leave or Remain. I want a second referendum swiftly followed by another election. That’s the election where we can decide on the glittering array of policies the tyrant and the holy man are dangling before our eyes.